3* Monday Night Football SMASH on 49ers -6.5

3* Monday Night Football SMASH on 49ers -6.5

San Francisco vs. Arizona, 10/29/2012 20:30 EDT, Score: 24 - 3

Point Spread: -6½/-110 San Francisco

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Win

3* Monday Night Football SMASH on 49ers -6.5
Since getting out to a surprising 4-0 start, the Cardinals have come back down to earth with three consecutive losses. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

The 49ers are the superior team on both sides of the football. They rank 8th in the NFL in total offense with 376.1 yards per game while the Cardinals rank 31st with 293.9 yards per game. The 49ers rank No. 1 in total defense with 272.3 yards allowed per game while Arizona ranks 6th with 312.1 yards allowed per contest.

While the Cards have been good defensively, they have shown a susceptibility to the run that will cost them tonight. They rank 21st against the run with 120.9 yards allowed per game and have given up an average of 165.5 rushing yards the past two weeks. They'll have a tough time slowing down San Francisco's top-ranked rushing offense, which averages 176.3 yards per game.

In addition to being superior offensively and defensively, I believe San Francisco also holds the advantage on special teams. Its solid punt return game often sets the offense up with great field position. This is significant because Arizona is 0-6 ATS versus excellent punt return teams that average more than 12.0 yards per return the last 2 seasons. It has lost to these teams by an average score of 23.5 to 14.5.

The 49ers have had Arizona's number. They have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with their last 4 wins coming by a minimum of 15 points. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Arizona.

I also like the fact that San Francisco has had 3 more days than Arizona to prepare as it played the Thursday night game in Week 7.

Plays on Monday Night Football favorites that check in off a win against a division rival are 53-22 ATS since 1983. These teams have been favored by an average of 5.8 points and have won by an average of 10.6. The
49ers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 Monday night games.

It's also worth noting that the 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Lay the points.


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