3* AFC South SMASH on Colts +3.5

3* AFC South SMASH on Colts +3.5

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee, 10/28/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 19 - 13

Point Spread: +3½/-110 Indianapolis

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Win

3* AFC South SMASH on Colts +3.5
The Titans have strung together back-to-back wins and are being overvalued because of it. They have been underdogs of at last 3.5 points in every game this season and are all of a sudden favorites of 3.5 points against a team that has wins against the Vikings and Packers - teams that currently have winning records.

Tennessee's wins pale in comparison as the Lions, Steelers and Bills are all currently .500 or worse.

Even with back-to-back covers the Titans are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 division contests. They have lost 6 of their last 7 against Indy, including a 27-13 loss Dec. 18, 2011 in the most recent meeting. That loss is a concern because this year's Colts are better than last year. I'm not so sure the Titans are as good as they were a season ago when they went 9-7.

Laying more than field goal on Tennessee at home has been a no-no. In fact, the Titans are on a 12-29 ATS slide as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

Another thing you don't want to do is get behind Tennessee following a game in which it had it going offensively. That's because the Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 0-6 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. The Titans have lost these six games by an average score of 31.0 to 12.5.

The numbers don't lie. The Colts are a better team than the Titans on both sides of the football. Take the points.

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