3* Sun Belt SMASH on Louisiana-Lafayette -4

3* Sun Belt SMASH on Louisiana-Lafayette -4

Arkansas State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, 10/23/2012 20:00 EDT, Score: 50 - 27

Point Spread: -4/-110 Louisiana-Lafayette

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

3* Sun Belt SMASH on Louisiana-Lafayette -4
The home team has dominated this series, and I expect home field to be the difference yet again. The home team has won 12 of the last 13 meetings, and Louisiana-Lafayette is a perfect 7-0 at home during this span. These 7 wins have come by an average of 8.6 points.

The biggest concern for Lafayette is its pass defense, which ranks 117th in the country with 292.5 yards allowed per game. Arkansas State has completed a respectable 62.4 percent of its passes this season, but the Ragin' Cajuns have never lost to such teams under coach Hudspeth. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus solid passing teams with a completion rate of 58 percent or better and have defeated these teams by an average score of 36.3 to 27.2.

The fact Lafayette averages a strong 6.1 yards per game also bodes well for us as the Red Wolves are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games versus teams that average 5.9 yards per play or more. The Wolves have lost these contests by an average score of 37.4 to 14.0.

While I'm confident Lafayette can survive Arkansas State's passing attack, I don't think the Red Wolves will have an answer for the Lafayette's running attack. The Red Wolves rank 105th in the nation against the run with 206.3 yards allowed per game, and the Ragin' Cajuns are 4-0 this season when rushing for more than 110 yards. They should be able to surpass that mark as Arkansas State has given up 132 rushing yards or more in six of its seven games.

The Ragin' Cajuns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games in this series. Lay the points.


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