5* NFL Line Mistake Game of the Month on Panthers +2.5

5* NFL Line Mistake Game of the Month on Panthers +2.5

Dallas vs. Carolina, 10/21/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 19 - 14

Point Spread: +2½/-105 Carolina

Sportsbook: 5Dimes

Result: Loss

5* NFL Line Mistake Game of the Month on Panthers +2.5
The Panthers should not be underdogs at home to a 2-win Dallas team that has lost its last 2 games overall and its last 2 on the road.

The Panthers have lost 3 straight, 2 of those by 4 points or fewer, but they've had a full 2 weeks to prepare for this game. I fully expect the extra preparation time to pay off.

One thing you don't want to do is lay points with the Cowboys. Consider that they are just 4-18 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. They are even 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a losing record.

Dallas showed a little life last week by outgaining Baltimore 481-316 but it still lost. That performance isn't enough to pull me off Carolina here as the Cowboys are 0-6 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 150 yards or more in their previous game the last 3 seasons. They have lost by an average score of 24.2 to 14.5 in this situation.

It's also worth noting that Dallas has been a dead fade of late in games odds makers expect to be close. In fact, it is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when the line is +3 to -3. It has lost by an average score of 26.4 to 17.1 in this situation.

The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

The Panthers are also on a 12-1 ATS run at home versus teams that average 375 yards or more per game. They have won by an average score of 23.7 to 18.1 in this situation. Take the points as Carolina wins this one outright.


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