20* AFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +1
Denver vs. San Diego,
10/15/2012 20:30 EDT,
Score: 35 - 24
Point Spread: +1/-108 Denver
After opening 2-3 this season, this is a very important game for the Denver Broncos tonight. They need it more than the 3-2 San Diego Chargers as they do not want to fall two games behind their division rivals.
I believe Denver is the better team this season. It has been dealt an absolutely brutal schedule with the likes of the Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Raiders and Patriots. In my opinion, it's the toughest schedule that any team has faced thus far. As a result, the Broncos are battle-tested.
Despite playing such a tough schedule, the Broncos rank 6th in the NFL in total offense (390.0 yards/game) and 13th in total defense (335.2 yards/game). They have been in every game they've played with a chance to win in the 4th quarter. The Chargers are just 24th in total offense (334.8 yards/game) despite playing a soft schedule.
The Chargers don't have a good win yet. Their three victories have come against the Raiders, Chiefs and Titans, three teams with a combined 4-13 record. They were handled in their two games against the Falcons and Saints.
The road team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings in this series over the past three seasons. As you can see, home-field advantage means nothing when these teams get together.
This play falls into a system that is 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet against home favorites (SAN DIEGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. Bet the Broncos Monday.