3* NBA *BEST BET*
Milwaukee vs. Denver,
01/02/2012 21:00 EDT,
Score: 86 - 91
Point Spread: +5/-105 Milwaukee
3* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +5
This is a tough spot for the Nuggets who are up against a fresh Milwaukee team following a taxing home-and-home with the Lakers. This is just Milwaukee's 4th game of the season and it's had 2 full days to rest up and prepare for this contest. The Nuggets, meanwhile, will be playing their sixth game of the season and third in 3 days.
Milwaukee has been a good defensive team since Skiles took over, and so far it has been able to generate more offense this season. Going along with this, we find that plays on any good defensive team (allowing 88-92 ppg) that is matched up against an average defensive team (allowing 92-98 ppg) after leading their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half are 27-4 ATS the last 5 seasons.
The fact Denver has struggled on the boards early on plays in our favor as well. Consider that Milwaukee is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 5 or more per game under Skiles. The Bucks have defeated these foes by an average of 8.2 points. Bet the Bucks.