25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Green Bay Packers +3.5
Green Bay vs. Houston,
10/14/2012 20:20 EDT,
Score: 42 - 24
Point Spread: +3½/-105 Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers are way undervalued right now after their 2-3 start. This team is still every bit as good as it was a year ago when it went 15-1, but so far it just hasn't been able to find a way to win close games. As a result, they are going under the radar, which has provided us with some excellent line value here.
The Houston Texans are way overvalued after their 5-0 start. Sure, I picked the Texans to win the Super Bowl this season, but I know when to fade them and this is certainly the week to do so. Houston has benefited from an easy schedule that has featured ZERO teams that have a winning record in the Dolphins, Jaguars, Broncos, Titans and Jets. They are now without 2011 Defensive MVP Brian Cushing for the rest of the season, which is a huge loss.
Green Bay has played a much tougher schedule thus far as it has played only one team that is below .500 heading into Week 6. That was the New Orleans Saints, who are obviously much better than their record would indicate. Two of their three losses have come by three points or less, and the other came against San Francisco, which is the best team in the NFC in my opinion.
After falling to 2-3 on the season, the Packers are looking at this game as a must-win. They will want this game more than the Texans, who can afford a loss right now after their perfect start. I believe the Packers go out and get a this signature win, which will get them right back on track going forward.
This play falls into a system that is 26-4 (86.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3.5 to -3.5 (GREEN BAY) - after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Green Bay is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a ATS loss. The Packers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Mike McCarthy is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of Green Bay. He has never lost in this situation, and I expect him to stay undefeated in this spot tonight. Bet the Packers Sunday.