4* MAC Game of the Week on Toledo -13.5

4* MAC Game of the Week on Toledo -13.5

Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan, 10/13/2012 13:00 EDT, Score: 52 - 47

Point Spread: -13½/-110 Toledo

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Loss

4* MAC Game of the Week on Toledo -13.5
This is a complete mismatch. Toledo has rattled off 5 straight wins, with the last 4 coming by double digits, while Eastern Michigan is 0-5 on the season with all of its losses coming by 11 points or more.

Toledo crushed EMU 54-16 last season and 42-7 the year before that. In fact, the Rockets are 5-0 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings with those wins coming by an average of 29.4 points.

The fact Eastern Michigan gave up 41 points at home to Kent State last game is a big concern. That's because the Eagles are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Ron English in home games after allowing 37 points or more in their last game. They have lost by an average score of 31.7 to 11.7 in this situation.

The Eagles are also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach English in home games after being outgained by 175 total yards or more in their previous game. They have lost by an average score of 30.3 to 15.4 in this situation.

Toledo has struggled in pass defense but Eastern Michigan doesn't have an offense that can take advantage. That's generally been the case as the Eagles are even 0-6 ATS vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles have lost by an average score of 42.0 to 15.2 in this situation.

The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing record. Lay the points.


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