5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on Boise State -7

5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on Boise State -7

Fresno State vs. Boise State, 10/13/2012 15:30 EDT, Score: 10 - 20

Point Spread: -7/-115 Boise State

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on Boise State -7
Boise State has owned Fresno State. The Broncos are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning those by an average of 34.3 points.

The Broncos are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run versus Fresno State on the blue turf, winning those by an average of 37.8 points.

Overall, the Broncos are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. And, the favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Much of Fresno State's success this season has stemmed from a defense that has forced 18 turnovers. This opportunistic unit might be a concern except the Broncos are only averaging 1.4 turnovers per game while forcing an average of 3.4. Consider that Boise State is on a 7-0 ATS run against teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers per game. It has won by an average of 30.4 points in this situation.

In addition, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that check in off 2 consecutive wins against conference rivals, provided they are matched up against an opponent that is coming off a double digit road win, are 37-12 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is 19-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average and have lost by an average of 14.8 points.

Boise State isn't as good as it was last season when it defeated Fresno State 57-7 on the road. However, the Bulldogs haven't narrowed the gap enough to deserve this much respect from odds makers. Lay the points.


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