3* NCAAF Friday Night Feast
UCLA vs. Oregon,
12/02/2011 20:00 EDT,
Score: 31 - 49
Point Spread: +32/-110 UCLA
3* NCAAF Friday Night Feast (FOX) on UCLA +32
Motivated by last week's embarrassing 50-0 loss to USC, further motivated by last season's 60-13 loss at Oregon and further motivated yet by a chance to play in the Rose Bowl, I expect the Bruins to play the Ducks tougher than the odds makers think.
The Bruins can draw even more motivation from the firing of Rick Neuheisel, who will be coaching his final game tonight.
"We don't care if they [UCLA athletic department] don't believe in us," tight end Joseph Fauria said in regard to the firing of his coach. "They wouldn't be the first. We're all focused on going up there Friday and getting that win."
While motivation is never enough alone, schematically I like the fact that both teams are predominantly run-first squads. With both teams keeping the ball on the ground, the clock will keep moving. That makes these 32 points even more valuable.
Plays on road underdogs checking in off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, provided they return 6 or more starters than their opponent, are 55-24 ATS the last 19 years.
In addition, plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points checking in after scoring 9 points or fewer last game, provided they are matched up against a foe that is coming off a game in which 60 or more total points were amassed, are 43-16 ATS the last 19 years. We'll take the points.