5* NCAAF *BEST BET* on BYU +7.5

5* NCAAF *BEST BET* on BYU +7.5

BYU vs. Boise State, 09/20/2012 21:00 EDT, Score: 6 - 7

Point Spread: +7½/-110 BYU

Sportsbook: BookMaker

Result: Win

5* NCAAF *BEST BET* on BYU +7.5
Boise State is being overvalued, which has recently been the case following a big home win. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games following a win of 17 points or more. They are also on a 0-6 ATS slide in home contests after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins.

The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and I like them to continue their book-beating ways because of their run defense.

Boise State is having to rely on its running game more than it has in a long time following the departure of QB Kellen Moore, but it won't get anything easy on the ground against a BYU defense that held Washington State to -5 rushing yards and Utah to 49 rushing yards.

Consider that BYU is 8-0 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its last game over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average score of 33.6 to 19.4 in this situation. The Cougars are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus the Mountain West. Take the points.

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