Stephen Nover Free Sunday NFL Play
Buffalo vs. NY Jets,
10/26/2014 13:00 EDT
Point Spread: -3/-105 NY Jets
The Jets aren't making the playoffs. But it's a mistake to write them off - especially in this game. There are reasons why the oddsmaker has made the Jets the first 1-6 team to be favored against an opponent with a winning record.
New York's defense isn't nearly as bad as the statistics may indicate. The Jets had an impossible draw facing a Murderer's Row of quarterback in their past six games going against Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Those are all elite passers.
Now the Jets drop all the way down to Kyle Orton, a career backup who is more game manager than downfield attacker. Orton needs weapons and he'll be without Buffalo's two top running backs as Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller are both out with injuries. The Jets have a stout run defense ranking eighth. Orton is going to have to make plays - which is not his strength.
New York has just three takeaways, fewest in the NFL. That stems, though, from playing against outstanding quarterbacks. Orton has thrown 17 touchdown passes and been intercepted 14 times during the past five years.
The Bills were fortunate to beat the Lions and Vikings during the past three weeks, nipping Minnesota at home last Sunday on the final play.
The Jets are playing hard for popular Rex Ryan. They would have covered against Denver a couple of weeks ago if not for a pick-six by Geno Smith with 15 seconds left and they outplayed New England last week losing when a long field goal attempt was blocked on the final play.
New York enters this matchup having had extra rest and preparation time from having played on a Thursday and with their offense and special teams tremendously upgraded by the addition of Percy Harvin.
The Jets' offense is better now with Harvin giving Smith another receiving option besides steady Eric Decker and emerging tight end Jace Amaro. Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson are a respectable running back tandem.
The Jets have won the past four times hosting the Bills.
(Editor's note: Long-time NFL expert Stephen Nover has beaten the books 18 of the last 20 years in the NFL and was the No. 1 NFL 'capper in 2012. Stephen is enjoying another big season this year cashing 64 percent of his NFL plays during the last five weeks. In addition to this play, Stephen has his Chalk Play of the Month going today along with his Road Warrior Crusher and a play on the early Lions-Falcons game in London. Don't miss any of these other big winners.)