Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Free NFL Pick
Sunday, Oct. 27, 1 p.m. (ET)
NFL Betting Odds: VietBet
Pointspread: New England -7
Total Line: 45
Miami blew a golden opportunity to move just a half a game out of the lead in the AFC East with last Sunday’s 23-21 loss to Buffalo as a six-point favorite at home, but it get a second chance to close the gap in this week’s game. The Dolphins are currently 3-3 on the year both straight-up and against the spread and the total has gone OVER in five of their first six games.
Second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill continues to suffer from inconsistency from one week to the next, but overall he has completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 1,577 yards and nine touchdowns which is a step in the right direction from his rookie campaign. The weak spot in the Dolphins’ offense has been a running game that is averaging just 78 yards a game, which is ranked 25th in the NFL. Miami has also had some issues on defense especially against the pass. This unit is ranked 20th in the league in points allowed; giving-up an average of 23.3 points a game.
Lack of consistency has been the theme for New England all season long. It is 5-2 SU on the year but just 3-4 ATS. A week after losing to Cincinnati as a two-point road favorite, New England staged a dramatic comeback in a 30-27 victory over New Orleans as a 2.5-point favorite at home. Going back on the road last week as 3.5-point road favorites against New York, the Patriots came up short in a 30-27 loss to their division rivals. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four games.
The return of tight end Ron Gronkowski provided an instant boost to a passing game that was ranked in the bottom third of the league, but Tom Brady will need more than this to improve New England’s scoring average of just 21.7 points a game. After a very solid start, the Patriots’ defense is starting to show some signs of wear and tear. It is still ranked fifth in the league in points allowed (18.1), but it has given-up 23 points or more in three of its last four games.
This almost becomes a must-win game for Miami if it wants to keep pace in the division title race. It will be tough to get a SU win in New England, but the gap between the Patriots and the rest of the teams in the AFC East is not nearly as wide as it used to be. The Dolphins are 0-6 SU in the last six meetings and while this number will most likely reach seven, the free NFL pick is contest is Miami covering with the seven points.
New England 23 Miami 20