No. 17 Florida Gators vs. No. 10 LSU Tigers Free Football Pick
Saturday, Oct. 12, 3:30 p.m. (ET)
NCAAF Betting Odds: VietBet
Pointspread: LSU -7
Total Line: OFF
Florida improved to 4-1 overall and 3-0 in the SEC with a 30-10 pounding of Arkansas last Saturday as a 12.5-point home favorite. The total ended as a PUSH on a closing total line of 40 points. Since the Gators stumbled against No. 13 Miami in a 21-16 loss on Sept. 7 as three-point road favorites, they have rolled over their first three SEC opponents (Tennessee, Kentucky and the Razorbacks) by a combined 51 points. They are 2-3 against the spread so far with the total staying UNDER in three of the five games.
The Gators have done a good job pounding the ball on the ground this season with an average of 192 rushing yards a game. Matt Jones and Mack Brown have combined for 606 yards and five touchdowns on 151 carries. The real strength of this team remains a shutdown defense that is ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 12.2 points a game.
LSU is off to a 5-1 SU start that includes a 2-1 record in SEC play. After falling to No. 7 Georgia in a 44-41 Week 5 shootout as three-point road underdogs, the Tigers took out their frustrations on Mississippi State this past Saturday in a 59-26 romp as seven-point favorites at home. The total went way OVER the 54.5-point line in that contest and it has now gone OVER in all six games this season.
While in the past LSU was known as a team with a bruising defense, this year’s version has been giving-up points in bunches. It is currently ranked 52nd in the nation in points allowed (24.7). The Tigers have been able to mask some of the softness on that side of the ball with an offense that is racking up an average of 45.5 points a game. This unit is ranked 27th in the country in passing yards per game behind quarterback Zach Mettenberger. He has thrown for 1,738 yards and 15 touchdowns in his first six games.
The Gators should be able to put some points on the board against this LSU defense, but it will not be enough to keep pace with the high-flying Tigers. LSU has the offensive weapons to test Florida’s defense and while it may not hit its scoring average in this game, the free pick is the Tigers minus the seven points at home.
LSU 33 Florida 24