Articles

Betting against the public

League: Football
By: Chase Diamond Published on: 09/16/2013

Hi guys Chase Diamond here just wanted to share with you my views on betting against public money early in the NFL season as year in year out it is very profitable.  As soon as a line is released the books know where the public will be putting their money and gear there line towards that. Since 2005 teams receiving less than 20% of public action have cashed close to 58% of the time!   You can even get close to 60% winners if you focus on the home teams that are getting 20% or less public action! Early on in the NFL season the public relies on hype from previous season or stuff they get on the media. That is simply foolish business when betting ones money.  Sometimes they bet the following week because they watched Doug Martin run for 3 touchdowns against the Bears Defense and they figure hell he’s playing the Jags this week this should be a field day. There is a lot of work that goes into grabbing a line when it’s at peak value. The sharpest gamblers grab a big value line early then play the other side when the line has moved to where they want it. This approach is trying to win on both sides of a team maybe grabbing a team at -3 then when line goes to +4.5 +5 you try and win both sides using this method.

 

When it comes to sports betting you always want to identify where the sharp money is. Betting against the public is just a small piece of the handicapping game.  Reverse line movement is one key thing to look for when looking for sharp money.  A  example of this is if the Eagles opened up at a 10 point favorite and 70-80% of the public were backing the eagles and the line dropped to -9.5 well that would be a prime indicator of Reverse line movement.  Now try for yourself and track a few games and I’m sure you will be pleased with your results and as always good luck and keep an eye out for all my NFL selections this season.    Chase Diamond